top of page

Biden's farewell to AI

Writer's picture: Caro RobsonCaro Robson

20 January 2025


Today is Inauguration Day; within a few hours of this post being published, Donald J. Trump will once-again be President of the United States.


The new administration has the potential to make a huge impact on the AI industry and online world, but today’s post is about the final actions of the outgoing President.


On 14 January, President Biden passed two Executive Orders: one on AI infrastructure and the other on safeguarding the US electric vehicle industry against threats from Russia and China. On 16 January, he also passed the Executive Order on Strengthening and Promoting Innovation in the Nation’s Cybersecurity


Whether the new Trump administration implements the Orders remains to be seen, but all three are strong signals from the outgoing Biden team about the importance of AI, its environmental impact, national cybersecurity, and US tech-protectionism in relation to Russia and China.

 

This post will take a brief look at the AI Order, and what it could mean for the AI industry if implemented by the new administration.

 

The AI Order


The Executive Order on Advancing United States Leadership in Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure (AI Order) is far-reaching and ambitious in its plans to harness the federal planning, energy, defence and environmental systems to promote the construction of end-to-end AI supply-chains in the US.


“With this order, I provide a plan for protecting national security, preserving our economic competitiveness, revitalizing our energy infrastructure, and ensuring United States leadership in AI.”

Executive Order on Advancing United States Leadership in AI Infrastructure, Section 1



In brief


The AI Order paves the way for a significant expansion in the building of frontier AI data centres, energy infrastructure and nuclear power plants, through the lease of federal land to private AI developers and energy providers. It mandates that federal departments identify at least three sites suitable to be leased for the development of frontier AI systems, and ten sites for the development of nuclear power plants.


The entire AI supply-chain is considered, including the extraction of minerals, energy supply for AI centres, labour conditions for site builders and workers, the environmental impact of new data centres, and the building of new power plants. Those taking out leases under the AI Order will be required to prioritise the use of US-produced components, minerals and equipment. The AI Order also makes provision to consider government loans for building AI infrastructure in future, but no clear tax breaks or direct funding are included.



Potential impact


If implemented, the AI Order could signal a major shift in the US economy towards enabling AI, including support for building major data centres, promoting the internal US microchip market, refocusing the energy industry, and making frontier models available for government use. It could further entrench the dominance of US AI companies and big tech, at a time when the UK and EU are trying to forge their own AI sectors and prevent US dominance of the online space. In short, it could further cement US AI supremacy.


The AI Order also introduces an interesting development for self-regulation: the use of competitions between private companies to develop "best practice," "algorithmic efficiency" and better AI governance. If implemented - and successful - this could see a major shift in the self-regulation of big tech.



Here are my key takeaways:


1.      The sheer scale of ambition (and speed) of the AI Order


The AI Order is a large-scale national plan, including multiple federal departments and agencies. It shifts domestic energy policy to prioritise AI infrastructure, and incorporates defence, security and environmental concerns into expansion of the AI industry. It considers the entire AI supply chain, from mineral sourcing to approval of final models by the US AI Safety Institute (AISI).


  • The Order includes instructions to seven Federal Departments: State, Defense, Energy, Army, Interior, Agriculture and Commerce, and federal agencies including the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), Bureau of Land Management and state planning agencies

  • Energy supply to AI sites is to be prioritised by the Department for Energy (Section 8), including identifying 10 sites for new nuclear power plants (Section 9)

  • The Secretaries for Defense and Energy must identify three sites by 28 February 2025 for construction and operation of frontier AI data centres and “clean energy facilities to serve the data center”

  • The Secretary for Defense must identify sites by 15 March 2025 for “private-sector entities to construct and operate additional clean energy facilities” for the use of “frontier AI infrastructure”

  • “Federal Permitting Agencies shall prioritize work […] with the goal of issuing all permits and approvals required for construction by the end of 2025” (Section 9)

 

2.      America first


Although there is a section on international cooperation (Section 10), the plan is primarily focused on securing US dominance in AI infrastructure and models, including US-based mineral, microchip and energy suppliers. The AI Order follows the announcement in December of $6.75 billion in microchips contracts with Samsung, Texas Instruments, Amkor.


  • The three main criteria for selecting companies to lease federal land are: national defence, national security and (presumably US) public interest (Section 4)

  • A report on supply chain risks to the US data centre industry is to be delivered to the President within 180 days by Secretaries of State for Defense and Energy (Section 9)

  • Operators leasing federal land under the Order must use US-manufactured microchips “to the maximum extent possible” (Section 4(f))

 

3.      Environmental focus, including building new nuclear power plants


The environmental aspects of AI infrastructure are considered throughout the AI Order, including major infrastructure proposals for the “repowering” of the grid with green energy. Wildlife and protected species, air and water pollution, and local environmental agencies are to be consulted on building projects. Most significantly, the AI Order includes proposals for major nuclear plant construction.


  • One of the criteria to assess private-sector proposals to lease federal land is their “energy consumption and use of green energy” (Section 4(f))

  • Private AI site operators should show they “have procured sufficient new clean power generation resources with capacity value to meet the frontier AI data center’s planned electricity needs” to be successful (Section 4(f))

  • Section 6 calls on the Secretary of Energy to “establish requirements for [power] transmission providers and transmission organizations” to report on connectivity availability and opportunities for clean repowering

  • Section 9 establishes a competition for private sector entities to develop best practices on the “beneficial use of waste heat and other efforts to maximize efficiency,” algorithmic efficiency and optimal use of power by AI data centres, effectively self-regulation via open competition

 

4.      Consumers, market fairness and SMEs are considered


The role of consumers and need to establish a “fair and balanced” AI ecosystem runs throughout the AI Order, including considering the impact on consumer energy prices where major AI data centres are built. SMEs are given priority for leasing federal land, with requirements for successful larger organisations to make surplus compute available to smaller entities.


  • SMEs and the impact on communities are to be considered when selecting lease proposals, with the FTC involved in the selection to ensure there is no adverse impact on market competition (Section 4(f))

  • SMEs, possibly in consortium, should be prioritised for selection and given support in preparing their proposal for land leases (Section 4(f))

  • Surplus computational power ("compute") from data centres built on federal land should be made available “for commercial use by startups and small firms on nondiscriminatory terms and in a manner that minimizes barriers to interoperability, entry, or exit for users” (Section 4(f))

  • The impact on consumer market energy prices must be considered, with a report to be submitted to the President on the potential effects of AI data centers on electricity prices within 180 days of the AI Order (Section 5)

 

5.      Private-sector financing is key, but with the possibility of government loans


Whilst the Order envisages data and energy centres to be funded primarily by the private sector, there is a provision for possible government loans to become available in future. However, no mention is made of tax breaks or other government funding.


  • “The heads of agencies that possess loan or loan-guarantee authorities shall evaluate whether any such authorities could be used to support the development of AI infrastructure on Federal sites” within 180 days of the AI Order (Section 8)

 

6.      Cybersecurity and governance are central


Cybersecurity, and financial and corporate governance are criteria to be used in selecting proposals to lease federal land. Where a proposal is successful, the resultant data centre and AI models must be made available for assessment by the AISI for evaluation, and to the US military and security agencies for potential use.


  • The US AI Safety Institute must be able to inspect all models produced by centres built on land leased through the AI Order (Section 4(f))

  • “Cybersecurity and controls for models” are a key criterion in determining which proposals to accept from private entities to lease federal land (Section 4(f))

  • Additional criteria include: “adherence to technical standards and guidelines for cyber, supply-chain, and physical security […] including AI model weights, that are developed, acquired, modified, used, or stored at the site or in the course of work performed on the site,” giving the Order potential extra-territorial effects (Section 4(f))


7.    Collaboration abroad


Whilst the AI Order clearly has an ‘America First’ protectionist agenda, there is scope for international collaboration with allies. Coming in conjunction with the Order on EV, the Biden administration clearly understands the need for the US to have allies as it seeks to break ties with Russia and, more significantly, China.


The Order coincides with the recently-released UK AI Opportunities Action Plan, which makes provision for the majority of AI compute to be sourced from overseas. This could be a great opportunity for US-UK collaboration on AI infrastructure, if the AI Order is implemented.


  • The Secretary of State must develop “a plan for engaging allies and partners on accelerating the buildout of trusted AI infrastructure around the world” within 90 days of the AI Order (Section 10)

 


Conclusion: Does any of this matter?


The short answer is: we don’t know. The Trump administration will have the power to overturn the Order, or curtail compliance with it. The timing is particularly interesting, coming less than a week before President Biden leaves office.


According to Forbes, commenting on the Cybersecurity Order, it “begs the question: Is there an undisclosed imminent threat driving this urgency, or is this simply a rushed attempt to tie the hands of the incoming administration?”


It is possible that the AI Order, EV Order and Cybersecurity Order, are all a political manoeuvre designed to trap the incoming administration into dismantling a bold plan for US AI supremacy. It may certainly present international challenges for the UK and Europe, both of whom are seeking to promote their national and regional AI industries.


It may be, however, that the Orders are a final attempt from the outgoing administration to set in motion a legacy for its major policy priorities. Whether any of these proposed actions will take place depends, of course, on one man. By the time you read this, he will be President of the United States.

bottom of page